Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
