A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
